Updates about our firm, markets, and our investment research.
Download (PDF, 481KB) First Quarter 2026: A Crude Awakening While the year opened with a market fixated on artificial intelligence (“AI”) and anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the focus quickly shifted to the Iran war and spiking energy costs. Reuters reported that the conflict erased an estimated $7
Download our 2026 Capital Market Assumptions Report. Sellwood’s 2026 Capital Market Assumptions represent our best current thinking about future returns. They are the essential building blocks of the asset allocation work we perform for clients. Our 2026 return and risk assumptions are presented below: We update our capital market assumptions
Download (PDF, 481KB) Fourth Quarter 2025: Three’s a Crowd (Pleaser) US equities demonstrated remarkable resilience, securing a rare third consecutive year of double-digit gains in 2025. Despite the highest effective tariff rates since 1935 and significant geopolitical uncertainty, the S&P 500 rose 18%. Strong performance was supported by robust corporate
Download (PDF, 481KB) Third Quarter 2025: AI Keeps the Rally Alive as Fed Opens the Door to Cuts Equities posted strong gains in the third quarter, even as investors wrestled with familiar headwinds: a softening job market, persistently high valuations, and political uncertainty. In a now common refrain for investors,
Download (PDF, 481KB) Second Quarter 2025: 404 Error – Recession Not Found Despite recession fears and gloomy headlines, markets remained resilient in the second quarter of 2025. The sharp April selloff that nearly pushed the S&P 500 into bear market territory has been recovered and then some. Since President Trump’s
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