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Sellwood Insights

Updates about our firm, markets, and our investment research.

Download (PDF, 481KB) Third Quarter 2026: The Spectre of Higher Bond Yields The third quarter of 2026 was marked by a growing disconnect between stock and bond investors. While U.S. equities continued their advance, Treasury bonds endured their most challenging quarter since 2022 as yields rose sharply. By late September,

Download (PDF, 481KB) Second Quarter 2026: Reaching for Space — The Q2 Market Blast-Off Global equity markets successfully achieved escape velocity in the second quarter of 2026, setting new highs despite geopolitical concerns. Large-cap U.S. stocks gained an exceptional 15%, marking their strongest quarterly performance since 2020. The surge left

Download (PDF, 481KB) First Quarter 2026: A Crude Awakening While the year opened with a market fixated on artificial intelligence (“AI”) and anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the focus quickly shifted to the Iran war and spiking energy costs. Reuters reported that the conflict erased an estimated $7

Download our 2026 Capital Market Assumptions Report. Sellwood’s 2026 Capital Market Assumptions represent our best current thinking about future returns. They are the essential building blocks of the asset allocation work we perform for clients. Our 2026 return and risk assumptions are presented below: We update our capital market assumptions

Download (PDF, 481KB) Fourth Quarter 2025: Three’s a Crowd (Pleaser) US equities demonstrated remarkable resilience, securing a rare third consecutive year of double-digit gains in 2025. Despite the highest effective tariff rates since 1935 and significant geopolitical uncertainty, the S&P 500 rose 18%. Strong performance was supported by robust corporate

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